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Red213
593758.1
252270.8
902370.5
Blue184
255754.7
142566.7
367467.3
61%Model gave it39%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions218209160180200240260280213184

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+6
+37Teleop
+25Endgame
+29Fouls
AutonomousBlue +6
6Leave9
8Coral scored#8
38Coral points41
44Total auto50
TeleoperatedRed +43
34Coral scored#22
121Coral points78
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#4
12Processor points12
16Net points16
28Algae points28
149Total teleop106
Reef
17L4#11
12L3#7
9L2#8
4L1 · trough#4
48Game pieces#36
BargeBlue +12
14Cage & park26
14Total endgame26
Penalties & totalRed +29
6Foul points2
213Total score184

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
70.80.2
69.970.1
Auto21.5
Teleop44.7
End4.6
red by 3.5
67.30.2
67.567.3
Auto16.2
Teleop40.4
End10.7
Second
70.50.2
69.669.8
Auto14.0
Teleop53.1
End3.4
red by 3.8
1425
#11
66.70.2
66.966.7
Auto20.2
Teleop38.0
End8.5
Third
5937
#25
58.10.2
57.257.4
Auto6.0
Teleop45.2
End6.9
red by 3.5
2557
#30
54.70.2
54.854.7
Auto7.5
Teleop41.5
End5.7