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Red146
552835.0
301555.5
29616.0
Blue121
543936.4
311727.8
544320.4
68%Model gave it32%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions103936080120140146121

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+18Auto
+23Teleop
+25Endgame
+25Fouls
AutonomousRed +18
0Leave6
9Coral scored#4
44Coral points20
44Total auto26
TeleoperatedRed +5
14Coral scored#16
50Coral points57
3Processor algae#1
3Net algae#3
18Processor points6
12Net points12
30Algae points18
80Total teleop75
Reef
7L4#9
8L3#4
5L2#4
3L1 · trough#3
29Game pieces#24
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +25
6Foul points6
146Total score121

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
55.53.6
42.446.0
Auto15.6
Teleop32.4
End7.5
red by 19.0
36.41.9
33.035.0
Auto8.4
Teleop21.0
End7.1
Second
35.03.6
29.032.7
Auto9.2
Teleop17.0
End8.8
red by 7.2
3117
#22
27.81.9
27.929.8
Auto4.8
Teleop20.7
End2.3
Third
296
#28
16.03.6
15.819.5
Auto4.0
Teleop9.0
End3.0
blue by 4.3
5443
#19
20.41.9
20.922.8
Auto5.3
Teleop13.8
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
61%Auto oddsEarned83%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
94%Barge oddsEarned44%Barge oddsEarned