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Red111
494741.3
354422.8
543936.4
Blue42
692915.9
353213.4
398515.4
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8262204010012014011142

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
+43Teleop
+63Endgame
+69Fouls
Autonomouslevel
6Leave6
0Coral scored#0
0Coral points0
6Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +43
14Coral scored#6
49Coral points20
1Processor algae#0
3Net algae#1
6Processor points0
12Net points4
18Algae points4
67Total teleop24
Reef
5L4#2
4L3#2
3L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
18Game pieces#7
BargeRed +20
26Cage & park6
26Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +69
12Foul points6
111Total score42

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
41.32.0
23.525.5
Auto6.3
Teleop25.5
End9.5
red by 25.4
6929
#25
15.93.5
22.318.8
Auto4.8
Teleop4.9
End6.2
Second
36.42.0
25.026.9
Auto8.4
Teleop21.0
End7.1
red by 21.0
3985
#30
15.43.5
17.814.3
Auto4.5
Teleop7.9
End2.9
Third
3544
#26
22.82.0
21.623.5
Auto6.0
Teleop14.5
End2.2
red by 9.3
3532
#21
13.43.5
16.112.6
Auto3.1
Teleop9.2
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
48%Auto oddsMissed38%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
37%Barge oddsEarned31%Barge oddsMissed