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Red62
311727.8
495517.0
747122.6
Blue47
686911.7
65407.8
815212.7
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions57522040801006247

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+31Teleop
+31Endgame
+15Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
0Leave6
2Coral scored#0
9Coral points0
9Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +28
9Coral scored#4
33Coral points15
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#0
6Processor points0
4Net points0
10Algae points0
43Total teleop15
Reef
3L4#2
4L3#1
3L2#1
1L1 · trough#0
13Game pieces#4
Bargelevel
6Cage & park6
6Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +15
4Foul points20
62Total score47

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3117
#22
27.80.9
21.822.7
Auto4.8
Teleop20.7
End2.3
red by 15.1
8152
#32
12.72.1
20.518.4
Auto3.6
Teleop7.4
End1.7
Second
7471
#18
22.60.9
13.314.3
Auto3.7
Teleop18.1
End0.8
red by 10.9
6869
#36
11.72.1
14.612.5
Auto3.7
Teleop7.1
End0.9
Third
4955
#24
17.00.9
14.615.5
Auto6.3
Teleop9.3
End1.4
red by 9.2
6540
#37
7.82.1
10.78.6
Auto2.2
Teleop3.9
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
37%Auto oddsMissed41%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
23%Barge oddsMissed27%Barge oddsMissed