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Red105
147417.7
511230.1
287636.4
Blue33
206441.5
207916.8
371910.6
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8679406010012014010533

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+54Teleop
+54Endgame
+72Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
3Leave3
2Coral scored#1
10Coral points6
13Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +50
11Coral scored#4
38Coral points14
2Processor algae#1
5Net algae#0
12Processor points6
20Net points0
32Algae points6
70Total teleop20
Reef
4L4#2
4L3#1
3L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
20Game pieces#6
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +72
18Foul points0
105Total score33

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2876
#12
36.40.4
35.035.5
Auto7.4
Teleop26.4
End2.6
blue by 5.1
41.52.9
42.940.0
Auto8.0
Teleop25.1
End8.4
Second
5112
#30
30.10.4
28.228.6
Auto4.5
Teleop24.5
End1.1
red by 13.2
2079
#27
16.83.2
20.116.8
Auto3.3
Teleop11.3
End2.2
Third
1474
#26
17.70.5
17.217.7
Auto3.3
Teleop12.1
End2.3
red by 7.1
3719
#28
10.62.9
13.510.6
Auto4.4
Teleop4.3
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
46%Auto oddsMissed76%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed31%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
21%Barge oddsMissed74%Barge oddsMissed