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Red138
169947.0
573522.2
115345.9
Blue112
24626.8
511230.1
206441.5
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions127101406080140160180138112

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
+8Teleop
+20Endgame
+26Fouls
AutonomousBlue +4
6Leave9
2Coral scored#2
9Coral points10
15Total auto19
TeleoperatedRed +12
12Coral scored#15
43Coral points53
2Processor algae#1
6Net algae#2
12Processor points6
24Net points8
36Algae points14
79Total teleop67
Reef
6L4#7
4L3#3
3L2#4
1L1 · trough#3
22Game pieces#20
BargeRed +12
26Cage & park14
26Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +26
18Foul points12
138Total score112

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
47.00.1
47.247.3
Auto6.1
Teleop37.6
End3.4
red by 5.5
41.50.0
41.541.5
Auto8.0
Teleop25.1
End8.4
Second
45.90.1
46.146.2
Auto6.4
Teleop31.4
End8.1
red by 15.8
5112
#30
30.10.0
30.030.1
Auto4.5
Teleop24.5
End1.1
Third
5735
#20
22.20.1
22.422.5
Auto3.4
Teleop16.5
End2.3
blue by 4.6
246
#8
26.80.0
26.726.8
Auto4.6
Teleop19.1
End3.0