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Red115
111920.6
15133.8
287636.4
Blue118
1025431.8
206727.9
174034.7
46%Model gave it54%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions105107406080120140160180115118

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+17
+13Teleop
+3Endgame
Fouls+3
AutonomousBlue +17
6Leave3
2Coral scored#6
10Coral points30
16Total auto33
TeleoperatedRed +30
19Coral scored#14
69Coral points51
3Processor algae#1
2Net algae#2
18Processor points6
8Net points8
26Algae points14
95Total teleop65
Reef
9L4#5
6L3#10
3L2#3
3L1 · trough#2
26Game pieces#23
BargeBlue +10
4Cage & park14
4Total endgame14
Penalties & totalBlue +3
0Foul points6
115Total score118

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2876
#12
36.40.5
36.036.4
Auto7.4
Teleop26.4
End2.6
red by 1.7
1740
#17
34.70.3
34.134.4
Auto12.7
Teleop18.7
End3.3
Second
151
#15
33.80.5
33.333.8
Auto6.7
Teleop26.8
End0.3
red by 2.0
31.80.3
31.231.5
Auto5.1
Teleop19.9
End6.8
Third
1119
#34
20.60.5
20.120.6
Auto2.9
Teleop17.2
End0.5
blue by 7.3
2067
#23
27.90.3
27.227.5
Auto8.3
Teleop13.6
End6.0