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Red90
17725.0
640412.0
703328.2
Blue14
90509.2
92186.5
1001916.7
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions525010203040607080909014

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+16Auto
+64Teleop
+66Endgame
+76Fouls
AutonomousRed +16
3Leave0
3Coral scored#0
13Coral points0
16Total auto0
TeleoperatedRed +48
13Coral scored#3
48Coral points10
1Processor algae#0
2Net algae#1
6Processor points0
8Net points4
14Algae points4
62Total teleop14
Reef
7L4#1
4L3#1
2L2#0
3L1 · trough#1
19Game pieces#4
BargeRed +2
2Cage & park0
2Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +76
10Foul points0
90Total score14

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
28.22.3
28.931.2
Auto7.2
Teleop17.0
End4.0
red by 11.5
16.72.1
22.019.8
Auto3.3
Teleop11.1
End2.3
Second
6404
#20
12.02.3
10.713.0
Auto3.0
Teleop8.7
End0.3
red by 2.7
9050
#21
9.22.4
16.113.7
Auto1.9
Teleop6.9
End0.5
Third
1772
#14
5.02.3
5.78.1
Auto2.9
Teleop1.6
End0.5
blue by 1.5
9218
#19
6.52.4
8.15.7
Auto1.1
Teleop4.0
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
48%Auto oddsEarned58%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
2%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
26%Barge oddsMissed16%Barge oddsMissed