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Red84
916616.5
115659.1
90509.2
Blue56
92186.5
827619.0
961112.3
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions115220501001508456

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+38Teleop
+28Endgame
+28Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
0Leave6
3Coral scored#0
16Coral points0
16Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +28
12Coral scored#5
42Coral points18
1Processor algae#1
4Net algae#3
6Processor points6
16Net points12
22Algae points18
64Total teleop36
Reef
5L4#2
6L3#1
2L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
20Game pieces#9
BargeBlue +10
4Cage & park14
4Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +28
0Foul points0
84Total score56

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
59.11.0
62.261.2
Auto12.5
Teleop38.3
End8.3
red by 40.1
19.01.2
16.417.6
Auto5.4
Teleop12.1
End1.5
Second
16.51.0
16.715.7
Auto3.8
Teleop11.8
End0.8
red by 4.2
9611
#11
12.31.2
7.78.9
Auto3.6
Teleop6.1
End2.6
Third
9050
#21
9.21.0
12.611.5
Auto1.9
Teleop6.9
End0.5
red by 2.8
9218
#19
6.51.2
5.87.0
Auto1.1
Teleop4.0
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
80%Auto oddsEarned27%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
19%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
45%Barge oddsMissed21%Barge oddsEarned