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Red57
1019020.6
911019.7
961112.3
Blue46
1001916.7
580019.1
703328.2
33%Model gave it67%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions547801001505746

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+9Teleop
+11Endgame
+11Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
6Leave6
3Coral scored#1
13Coral points3
19Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +1
6Coral scored#6
22Coral points23
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#1
6Processor points6
4Net points4
10Algae points10
32Total teleop33
Reef
3L4#2
3L3#3
2L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
11Game pieces#9
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +11
0Foul points0
57Total score46

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
20.60.5
22.122.6
Auto4.4
Teleop13.7
End2.5
blue by 7.6
28.21.4
29.327.8
Auto7.2
Teleop17.0
End4.0
Second
19.70.5
18.619.1
Auto6.8
Teleop11.2
End1.7
red by 0.6
19.11.4
18.617.2
Auto4.9
Teleop12.9
End1.2
Third
9611
#11
12.30.5
8.99.4
Auto3.6
Teleop6.1
End2.6
blue by 4.4
16.71.4
19.317.9
Auto3.3
Teleop11.1
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
65%Auto oddsEarned89%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed2%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
35%Barge oddsMissed19%Barge oddsMissed