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Red39
911019.7
961112.3
921910.5
Blue13
1019020.6
640412.0
99972.8
41%Model gave it59%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4752204060801003913

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+22Teleop
+20Endgame
+26Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
3Leave9
2Coral scored#0
10Coral points0
13Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +18
4Coral scored#0
14Coral points0
0Processor algae#0
1Net algae#0
0Processor points0
4Net points0
4Algae points0
18Total teleop0
Reef
3L4#0
1L3#0
1L2#0
1L1 · trough#0
7Game pieces#0
BargeBlue +2
2Cage & park4
2Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +26
6Foul points0
39Total score13

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
19.70.6
18.918.3
Auto6.8
Teleop11.2
End1.7
blue by 0.8
20.61.9
22.821.0
Auto4.4
Teleop13.7
End2.5
Second
9611
#11
12.30.6
12.111.5
Auto3.6
Teleop6.1
End2.6
red by 0.3
6404
#20
12.01.9
14.212.3
Auto3.0
Teleop8.7
End0.3
Third
9219
#16
10.50.6
11.210.6
Auto1.5
Teleop9.0
End0.1
red by 7.7
9997
#22
2.82.5
3.91.5
Auto2.6
Teleop-0.8
End0.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
59%Auto oddsEarned30%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed2%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
12%Barge oddsMissed11%Barge oddsMissed