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Red108
827619.0
92186.5
703328.2
Blue83
186029.7
1001916.7
999812.2
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6154020408010012010883

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+15Teleop
+1Endgame
+25Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
6Leave3
1Coral scored#1
7Coral points6
13Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +11
15Coral scored#10
55Coral points36
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#4
6Processor points6
8Net points16
14Algae points22
69Total teleop58
Reef
8L4#6
3L3#2
3L2#2
2L1 · trough#1
19Game pieces#16
BargeBlue +14
2Cage & park16
2Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +25
24Foul points0
108Total score83

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
28.21.0
27.628.6
Auto7.2
Teleop17.0
End4.0
blue by 1.5
29.70.7
29.830.5
Auto3.5
Teleop22.5
End3.7
Second
19.01.0
18.119.2
Auto5.4
Teleop12.1
End1.5
red by 2.3
16.70.7
17.017.7
Auto3.3
Teleop11.1
End2.3
Third
9218
#19
6.51.0
7.08.1
Auto1.1
Teleop4.0
End1.3
blue by 5.8
9998
#15
12.20.9
8.39.2
Auto2.8
Teleop7.8
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
63%Auto oddsEarned68%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed2%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
39%Barge oddsEarned9%Barge oddsEarned