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Red70
999510.9
916616.5
911019.7
Blue100
961112.3
999812.2
999614.0
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6432020408010012014070100

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
Teleop+16
Endgame+26
Fouls+30
Autonomouslevel
0Leave0
2Coral scored#2
12Coral points12
12Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +16
11Coral scored#15
38Coral points54
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#2
6Processor points6
8Net points8
14Algae points14
52Total teleop68
Reef
6L4#8
3L3#3
2L2#3
2L1 · trough#3
16Game pieces#20
BargeBlue +10
4Cage & park14
4Total endgame14
Penalties & totalBlue +30
2Foul points6
70Total score100

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
19.70.1
19.619.7
Auto6.8
Teleop11.2
End1.7
red by 5.7
14.01.0
12.513.4
Auto4.0
Teleop8.6
End1.3
Second
16.50.1
16.316.5
Auto3.8
Teleop11.8
End0.8
red by 4.2
9611
#11
12.30.9
10.911.8
Auto3.6
Teleop6.1
End2.6
Third
9995
#12
10.90.1
10.810.9
Auto3.8
Teleop6.1
End1.0
blue by 1.3
9998
#15
12.20.9
10.911.8
Auto2.8
Teleop7.8
End1.6