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Red146
597117.7
999442.8
880851.1
Blue19
99928.2
940520.4
375320.1
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9352015014619

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+23Auto
+125Teleop
+127Endgame
+127Fouls
AutonomousRed +23
6Leave3
4Coral scored#0
20Coral points0
26Total auto3
TeleoperatedRed +102
20Coral scored#2
72Coral points8
3Processor algae#0
6Net algae#1
18Processor points0
24Net points4
42Algae points4
114Total teleop12
Reef
9L4#1
8L3#1
3L2#0
4L1 · trough#0
33Game pieces#3
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +127
0Foul points0
146Total score19

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8808
#10
51.14.0
48.852.8
Auto9.6
Teleop38.9
End2.6
red by 30.7
9405
#21
20.41.6
18.817.1
Auto3.5
Teleop11.5
End5.5
Second
42.86.6
24.431.0
Auto9.4
Teleop31.0
End2.2
red by 22.6
3753
#18
20.11.6
18.316.7
Auto5.1
Teleop15.4
End-0.3
Third
5971
#19
17.74.0
13.217.1
Auto2.0
Teleop13.7
End2.1
red by 9.5
9992
#24
8.22.7
6.33.6
Auto-0.5
Teleop6.2
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
31%Auto oddsEarned62%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
14%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
19%Barge oddsMissed12%Barge oddsMissed