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Red136
99928.2
804491.2
648924.7
Blue117
978729.8
361643.7
940520.4
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15990050200250136117

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+25Teleop
+25Endgame
+19Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
6Leave6
4Coral scored#2
21Coral points11
27Total auto17
TeleoperatedRed +15
18Coral scored#17
63Coral points60
1Processor algae#1
4Net algae#1
6Processor points6
16Net points4
22Algae points10
85Total teleop70
Reef
8L4#6
6L3#8
6L2#3
2L1 · trough#2
27Game pieces#21
Bargelevel
24Cage & park24
24Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +19
0Foul points6
136Total score117

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
91.20.8
88.189.0
Auto19.4
Teleop61.8
End10.0
red by 47.5
43.71.1
42.843.9
Auto9.0
Teleop32.6
End2.2
Second
24.70.8
23.324.2
Auto5.1
Teleop13.8
End5.9
blue by 5.1
9787
#12
29.81.1
28.129.2
Auto3.6
Teleop19.9
End6.4
Third
9992
#24
8.21.4
6.88.2
Auto-0.5
Teleop6.2
End2.3
blue by 12.3
9405
#21
20.41.1
17.018.2
Auto3.5
Teleop11.5
End5.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
71%Auto oddsMissed41%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
67%Coral oddsEarned12%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
78%Barge oddsEarned58%Barge oddsEarned