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Red44
361643.7
945611.5
433636.2
Blue84
36424.7
998310.4
208030.1
82%Model gave it18%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions107670501502004484

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+38
Endgame+40
Fouls+40
AutonomousBlue +3
0Leave6
3Coral scored#2
13Coral points10
13Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +35
5Coral scored#11
19Coral points38
0Processor algae#2
1Net algae#2
0Processor points12
4Net points8
4Algae points20
23Total teleop58
Reef
3L4#4
2L3#3
2L2#4
1L1 · trough#2
9Game pieces#17
BargeBlue +2
2Cage & park4
2Total endgame4
Penalties & totalBlue +40
6Foul points6
44Total score84

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
43.71.3
45.043.7
Auto9.0
Teleop32.6
End2.2
red by 13.7
30.10.4
29.229.6
Auto4.9
Teleop23.2
End2.0
Second
36.21.3
37.436.2
Auto5.6
Teleop29.4
End1.3
red by 11.5
364
#13
24.70.4
23.824.2
Auto6.1
Teleop14.0
End4.6
Third
9456
#22
11.51.3
12.811.5
Auto3.3
Teleop8.2
End0.1
red by 1.2
9983
#20
10.40.5
9.19.6
Auto3.1
Teleop6.4
End0.7