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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions99390501502008953

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+26Teleop
+36Endgame
+36Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
3Leave6
3Coral scored#1
13Coral points6
16Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +22
13Coral scored#7
47Coral points25
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#2
6Processor points6
8Net points8
14Algae points14
61Total teleop39
Reef
5L4#3
4L3#3
5L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
19Game pieces#11
BargeRed +10
12Cage & park2
12Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +36
0Foul points0
89Total score53

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
38.30.1
28.328.5
Auto4.1
Teleop25.8
End8.5
red by 12.4
1758
#13
25.90.7
16.817.5
Auto4.4
Teleop20.7
End0.8
Second
281
#7
37.60.1
31.932.1
Auto5.9
Teleop31.2
End0.6
red by 17.8
19.80.7
21.121.8
Auto6.4
Teleop10.5
End2.9
Third
1102
#19
28.10.1
26.626.8
Auto7.1
Teleop21.0
End0.1
red by 21.7
1539
#34
6.40.7
4.35.0
Auto0.8
Teleop5.1
End0.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
53%Auto oddsEarned48%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
40%Barge oddsMissed25%Barge oddsMissed