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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6952204060801001201408485

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+1
+1Teleop
Endgame+1
Fouls+1
AutonomousBlue +1
0Leave3
4Coral scored#3
19Coral points17
19Total auto20
TeleoperatedRed +2
13Coral scored#11
45Coral points41
1Processor algae#2
2Net algae#1
6Processor points12
8Net points4
14Algae points16
59Total teleop57
Reef
6L4#6
5L3#4
3L2#2
3L1 · trough#2
20Game pieces#17
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +1
2Foul points2
84Total score85

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
48.51.4
35.036.4
Auto10.2
Teleop35.5
End2.8
red by 9.7
38.92.3
24.827.1
Auto11.1
Teleop25.9
End1.8
Second
9571
#23
21.91.4
18.720.1
Auto4.6
Teleop15.1
End2.2
blue by 6.4
3489
#16
28.32.3
13.816.1
Auto4.3
Teleop22.8
End1.2
Third
9315
#24
10.91.4
6.98.3
Auto4.0
Teleop3.9
End3.0
blue by 6.0
1293
#28
16.92.3
10.312.6
Auto3.0
Teleop9.9
End3.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
27%Auto oddsEarned40%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
26%Barge oddsMissed8%Barge oddsMissed