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Red161
28144.2
349051.3
34248.0
Blue118
1061917.6
616737.2
281549.4
74%Model gave it26%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions147112050100200250161118

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+59Teleop
+47Endgame
+43Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
9Leave3
1Coral scored#2
7Coral points9
16Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +55
25Coral scored#13
89Coral points48
3Processor algae#2
6Net algae#4
18Processor points12
24Net points16
42Algae points28
131Total teleop76
Reef
10L4#4
5L3#5
6L2#4
5L1 · trough#2
35Game pieces#21
BargeBlue +12
14Cage & park26
14Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +43
0Foul points4
161Total score118

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
51.30.4
40.641.0
Auto7.3
Teleop35.9
End8.2
red by 1.9
49.40.9
46.245.3
Auto12.4
Teleop28.9
End8.1
Second
342
#7
48.00.4
44.244.6
Auto4.3
Teleop40.5
End3.1
red by 10.8
37.20.9
36.535.6
Auto5.6
Teleop22.3
End9.4
Third
281
#10
44.20.4
40.240.6
Auto8.2
Teleop34.2
End1.8
red by 26.6
17.60.9
14.513.6
Auto3.7
Teleop10.7
End3.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
84%Auto oddsEarned86%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
8%Coral oddsEarned9%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
83%Barge oddsEarned82%Barge oddsEarned