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Red158
445170.3
131928.7
513034.9
Blue85
813717.9
28144.2
175824.2
92%Model gave it8%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions137895010015020015885

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+26Auto
+67Teleop
+73Endgame
+73Fouls
AutonomousRed +26
6Leave3
6Coral scored#1
29Coral points6
35Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +41
20Coral scored#13
71Coral points46
3Processor algae#1
5Net algae#4
18Processor points6
20Net points16
38Algae points22
109Total teleop68
Reef
10L4#5
7L3#3
6L2#4
3L1 · trough#2
34Game pieces#19
BargeRed +6
14Cage & park8
14Total endgame8
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +73
0Foul points0
158Total score85

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
70.32.4
65.567.9
Auto15.5
Teleop53.0
End1.8
red by 26.0
281
#10
44.20.2
42.242.0
Auto8.2
Teleop34.2
End1.8
Second
5130
#15
34.92.4
32.635.0
Auto4.6
Teleop28.9
End1.4
red by 10.8
1758
#17
24.20.2
26.426.3
Auto1.9
Teleop21.2
End1.1
Third
1319
#11
28.72.4
23.826.2
Auto7.9
Teleop16.5
End4.3
red by 10.8
8137
#26
17.90.2
18.718.6
Auto3.9
Teleop10.3
End3.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned44%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
28%Coral oddsEarned9%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
12%Barge oddsEarned9%Barge oddsMissed