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Red153
886623.5
949669.1
281537.6
Blue79
999513.4
453329.6
110237.0
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1507005010020025015379

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+58Teleop
+74Endgame
+74Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
6Leave3
5Coral scored#1
24Coral points6
30Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +37
22Coral scored#13
79Coral points46
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
6Processor points6
12Net points8
18Algae points14
97Total teleop60
Reef
7L4#5
8L3#4
6L2#3
6L1 · trough#2
31Game pieces#17
BargeRed +16
26Cage & park10
26Total endgame10
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +74
0Foul points0
153Total score79

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
69.11.9
65.667.5
Auto17.5
Teleop46.3
End5.3
red by 32.2
1102
#14
37.00.0
36.736.8
Auto9.7
Teleop25.9
End1.4
Second
37.61.9
36.538.4
Auto8.6
Teleop20.3
End8.8
red by 8.0
4533
#16
29.60.0
28.528.6
Auto5.2
Teleop18.4
End6.2
Third
23.51.9
22.424.3
Auto3.0
Teleop17.7
End2.8
red by 10.0
9995
#27
13.40.0
13.413.4
Auto0.9
Teleop9.7
End2.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
86%Auto oddsEarned80%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
33%Coral oddsMissed10%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
78%Barge oddsEarned39%Barge oddsMissed