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Red16
281520.7
70858.9
Blue27
813712.8
175813.9
61%Model gave it39%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions423502060801627

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+7Teleop
+7Endgame
Fouls+11
AutonomousRed +7
9Leave0
0Coral scored#1
1Coral points3
10Total auto3
Teleoperatedlevel
0Coral scored#0
0Coral points0
0Processor algae#0
0Net algae#0
0Processor points0
0Net points0
0Algae points0
0Total teleop0
Reef
0L4#0
0L3#1
0L2#0
0L1 · trough#0
0Game pieces#1
Bargelevel
6Cage & park6
6Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +11
0Foul points18
16Total score27

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2815
#17
20.72.4
17.014.6
Auto6.2
Teleop13.1
End1.5
red by 6.8
1758
#11
13.92.7
13.310.6
Auto1.8
Teleop10.6
End1.5
Second
9.52.4
11.38.9
Auto4.1
Teleop3.2
End2.2
blue by 3.2
8137
#15
12.82.7
11.38.6
Auto3.4
Teleop6.8
End2.6
Third
7085
#24
8.92.4
9.57.1
Auto3.0
Teleop3.0
End2.9
red by 1.8
7.12.7
8.55.8
Auto3.0
Teleop2.8
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
23%Auto oddsMissed11%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
22%Barge oddsMissed25%Barge oddsMissed