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Red236
1022119.4
58188.5
594094.9
Blue196
84664.7
666222.8
60492.3
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions217186150200250300236196

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+10
+26Teleop
+24Endgame
+40Fouls
AutonomousBlue +10
9Leave9
8Coral scored#10
39Coral points49
48Total auto58
TeleoperatedRed +36
33Coral scored#23
120Coral points82
2Processor algae#3
4Net algae#3
12Processor points18
16Net points12
28Algae points30
148Total teleop112
Reef
17L4#15
11L3#7
10L2#6
3L1 · trough#5
47Game pieces#39
BargeBlue +2
24Cage & park26
24Total endgame26
Penalties & totalRed +40
16Foul points0
236Total score196

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
94.90.4
94.594.9
Auto23.5
Teleop61.0
End10.4
red by 2.6
604
#3
92.30.4
91.992.3
Auto24.5
Teleop59.5
End8.3
Second
581
#2
88.50.4
88.188.5
Auto18.9
Teleop59.6
End10.0
red by 23.8
846
#9
64.70.4
64.364.7
Auto15.3
Teleop41.9
End7.5
Third
19.40.4
19.019.4
Auto2.3
Teleop15.7
End1.4
blue by 3.4
6662
#15
22.80.4
22.422.8
Auto4.5
Teleop16.4
End1.9