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Red154
592423.6
60492.3
198331.7
Blue104
900123.4
641850.1
415938.8
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions165126050100150200250154104

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+18Auto
+50Teleop
+50Endgame
+50Fouls
AutonomousRed +18
0Leave9
8Coral scored#3
41Coral points14
41Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +32
18Coral scored#13
63Coral points45
3Processor algae#2
7Net algae#5
18Processor points12
28Net points20
46Algae points32
109Total teleop77
Reef
11L4#5
8L3#6
4L2#3
3L1 · trough#2
36Game pieces#23
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +50
0Foul points0
154Total score104

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
604
#3
92.30.7
89.890.5
Auto24.5
Teleop59.5
End8.3
red by 42.2
50.10.9
57.256.3
Auto14.8
Teleop28.9
End6.3
Second
1983
#18
31.70.7
24.024.8
Auto6.6
Teleop25.4
End-0.3
blue by 7.1
4159
#12
38.80.9
40.439.5
Auto11.0
Teleop26.1
End1.7
Third
5924
#14
23.60.7
29.430.1
Auto8.6
Teleop13.0
End2.0
red by 0.2
9001
#19
23.41.5
20.118.5
Auto4.4
Teleop18.9
End0.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
93%Auto oddsMissed89%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
64%Coral oddsEarned17%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
32%Barge oddsMissed57%Barge oddsMissed