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Red148
58188.5
666222.8
879337.6
Blue158
900123.4
594094.9
84153.3
20%Model gave it80%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14718750100200250148158

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+19
Teleop+26
Endgame+10
Fouls+10
AutonomousBlue +19
6Leave6
5Coral scored#9
26Coral points45
32Total auto51
TeleoperatedBlue +7
16Coral scored#19
58Coral points67
1Processor algae#4
8Net algae#3
6Processor points24
32Net points12
38Algae points36
96Total teleop103
Reef
8L4#13
5L3#5
4L2#5
4L1 · trough#5
30Game pieces#35
BargeRed +16
20Cage & park4
20Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +10
0Foul points0
148Total score158

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
581
#2
88.50.6
78.879.4
Auto18.9
Teleop59.6
End10.0
blue by 6.4
94.90.9
93.392.4
Auto23.5
Teleop61.0
End10.4
Second
8793
#23
37.60.6
38.439.0
Auto11.1
Teleop22.5
End4.0
blue by 15.7
841
#6
53.30.9
55.054.1
Auto11.9
Teleop33.9
End7.5
Third
6662
#15
22.80.6
21.622.2
Auto4.5
Teleop16.4
End1.9
blue by 0.6
9001
#19
23.41.5
23.121.6
Auto4.4
Teleop18.9
End0.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
95%Auto oddsEarned76%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
36%Coral oddsEarned87%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
64%Barge oddsEarned91%Barge oddsMissed