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Red157
608328.6
816919.8
763260.7
Blue139
770941.9
907914.9
872536.1
71%Model gave it29%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12089050100150200157139

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
Teleop+8
0Endgame0
+18Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
9Leave0
3Coral scored#4
14Coral points19
23Total auto19
TeleoperatedBlue +12
21Coral scored#26
74Coral points92
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#4
12Processor points6
16Net points16
28Algae points22
102Total teleop114
Reef
8L4#10
8L3#11
4L2#3
4L1 · trough#6
30Game pieces#35
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Penalties & totalRed +18
18Foul points0
157Total score139

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.70.4
59.860.2
Auto15.1
Teleop38.3
End7.2
red by 18.8
41.90.8
40.341.1
Auto11.6
Teleop28.5
End1.7
Second
6083
#12
28.60.4
27.728.1
Auto7.3
Teleop17.8
End3.5
blue by 7.5
8725
#16
36.10.8
34.535.3
Auto5.3
Teleop28.6
End2.2
Third
8169
#28
19.80.4
18.919.3
Auto4.0
Teleop15.7
End0.1
red by 4.9
9079
#19
14.90.8
13.314.1
Auto3.7
Teleop7.8
End3.3