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Red40
749710.0
816919.8
764517.9
Blue45
856913.1
859526.7
1011414.1
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions83780501001502004045

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
Teleop+7
Endgame+11
Fouls+5
AutonomousRed +3
3Leave9
2Coral scored#0
9Coral points0
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +10
1Coral scored#4
4Coral points14
0Processor algae#0
1Net algae#1
0Processor points0
4Net points4
4Algae points4
8Total teleop18
Reef
1L4#1
1L3#1
0L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
4Game pieces#5
BargeBlue +4
2Cage & park6
2Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +5
18Foul points12
40Total score45

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8169
#28
19.84.1
28.924.7
Auto4.0
Teleop15.7
End0.1
blue by 6.9
8595
#22
26.72.6
35.933.2
Auto6.8
Teleop16.9
End2.9
Second
7645
#20
17.93.7
28.324.6
Auto5.2
Teleop9.1
End3.6
red by 3.7
14.12.6
21.819.2
Auto2.2
Teleop8.0
End4.0
Third
7497
#25
10.03.7
18.014.3
Auto3.0
Teleop6.4
End0.7
blue by 3.0
13.12.9
11.98.9
Auto3.5
Teleop8.9
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
84%Auto oddsEarned62%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
2%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
6%Barge oddsEarned39%Barge oddsEarned