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Red67
816919.8
880626.6
770941.9
Blue51
912628.5
1003411.2
763618.1
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions114720501001506751

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
+28Teleop
+26Endgame
+16Fouls
Autonomouslevel
6Leave9
1Coral scored#0
3Coral points0
9Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +28
13Coral scored#5
46Coral points18
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#1
6Processor points6
4Net points4
10Algae points10
56Total teleop28
Reef
5L4#2
2L3#1
4L2#1
3L1 · trough#1
16Game pieces#7
BargeBlue +2
2Cage & park4
2Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +16
0Foul points10
67Total score51

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
41.92.2
47.745.5
Auto11.6
Teleop28.5
End1.7
red by 13.4
9126
#23
28.52.0
32.030.0
Auto8.3
Teleop19.2
End1.1
Second
26.62.2
25.122.9
Auto3.8
Teleop18.3
End4.5
red by 8.5
7636
#29
18.12.0
25.023.0
Auto4.2
Teleop13.4
End0.5
Third
8169
#28
19.82.2
24.322.1
Auto4.0
Teleop15.7
End0.1
red by 8.6
11.22.0
13.611.7
Auto3.2
Teleop5.9
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
85%Auto oddsMissed59%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
44%Barge oddsMissed24%Barge oddsMissed