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Red173
23358.7
239340.7
406550.2
Blue148
146632.1
393765.1
314036.8
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions136124050100150200173148

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+19Teleop
+19Endgame
+25Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
3Leave9
5Coral scored#0
27Coral points0
30Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +2
19Coral scored#28
69Coral points99
6Processor algae#2
4Net algae#3
36Processor points12
16Net points12
52Algae points24
121Total teleop123
Reef
7L4#9
8L3#6
6L2#8
3L1 · trough#5
34Game pieces#33
Bargelevel
16Cage & park16
16Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +25
6Foul points0
173Total score148

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
233
#7
58.71.2
52.954.1
Auto11.8
Teleop41.0
End5.9
blue by 6.4
3937
#18
65.10.6
59.259.8
Auto12.0
Teleop44.5
End8.6
Second
4065
#13
50.21.4
40.541.9
Auto15.1
Teleop29.1
End6.0
red by 13.4
3140
#28
36.80.6
25.626.2
Auto3.8
Teleop31.3
End1.7
Third
2393
#22
40.72.1
28.230.2
Auto8.8
Teleop28.7
End3.2
red by 8.6
1466
#30
32.10.6
27.728.3
Auto5.8
Teleop24.9
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
89%Auto oddsEarned69%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
33%Coral oddsMissed47%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
32%Barge oddsEarned34%Barge oddsEarned