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Red118
101427.1
426544.8
398423.0
Blue86
170841.2
382120.9
966814.5
47%Model gave it53%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8288020030040050011886

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
0Teleop0
+20Endgame
+32Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
3Leave3
2Coral scored#1
9Coral points6
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +3
12Coral scored#13
42Coral points47
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#5
12Processor points6
16Net points20
28Algae points26
70Total teleop73
Reef
7L4#6
2L3#3
3L2#3
2L1 · trough#2
20Game pieces#20
BargeRed +20
24Cage & park4
24Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +32
12Foul points0
118Total score86

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
44.81.7
34.736.4
Auto11.3
Teleop27.8
End5.7
red by 3.7
1708
#39
41.20.0
37.837.8
Auto5.1
Teleop33.5
End2.6
Second
1014
#19
27.11.7
20.922.5
Auto5.9
Teleop15.1
End6.2
red by 6.2
3821
#31
20.90.0
21.321.3
Auto4.7
Teleop13.4
End2.7
Third
3984
#45
23.01.9
13.815.7
Auto4.2
Teleop15.8
End3.0
red by 8.5
9668
#34
14.50.0
15.815.8
Auto2.5
Teleop11.0
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
62%Auto oddsEarned40%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
9%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
21%Barge oddsEarned24%Barge oddsMissed