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Red122
146632.1
350438.0
651747.9
Blue110
1026912.8
170841.2
426544.8
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11296406080120140160180122110

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+10Teleop
+12Endgame
+12Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
0Leave6
5Coral scored#3
23Coral points13
23Total auto19
TeleoperatedRed +6
16Coral scored#16
57Coral points57
3Processor algae#2
2Net algae#2
18Processor points12
8Net points8
26Algae points20
83Total teleop77
Reef
9L4#4
5L3#7
3L2#4
4L1 · trough#4
26Game pieces#23
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +12
0Foul points0
122Total score110

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
47.91.0
39.440.5
Auto10.4
Teleop27.9
End9.6
red by 3.1
44.81.0
36.437.4
Auto11.3
Teleop27.8
End5.7
Second
38.01.0
30.131.1
Auto11.2
Teleop22.0
End4.9
blue by 3.1
1708
#39
41.21.0
37.838.8
Auto5.1
Teleop33.5
End2.6
Third
1466
#30
32.11.0
28.329.3
Auto5.8
Teleop24.9
End1.5
red by 19.4
12.81.7
12.514.2
Auto4.8
Teleop5.5
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
75%Auto oddsEarned67%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
15%Coral oddsMissed14%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
66%Barge oddsEarned24%Barge oddsEarned