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Qual 302025 Smoky Mountains Regional
Red128
581619.7
261445.4
402073.2
Blue64
966814.5
349229.6
382436.2
97%Model gave it3%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions151875010020012864

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+35Auto
+64Teleop
+64Endgame
+64Fouls
AutonomousRed +35
6Leave0
8Coral scored#2
38Coral points9
44Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +29
17Coral scored#10
60Coral points37
2Processor algae#1
2Net algae#2
12Processor points6
8Net points8
20Algae points14
80Total teleop51
Reef
7L4#4
7L3#3
7L2#3
4L1 · trough#2
29Game pieces#15
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +64
0Foul points0
128Total score64

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4020
#2
73.20.5
65.1→64.6
Auto22.1
Teleop43.7
End7.4
red by 37.0
3824
#21
36.22.1
31.7→29.6
Auto7.7
Teleop22.0
End6.5
Second
2614
#20
45.40.5
42.1→41.5
Auto11.4
Teleop29.6
End4.4
red by 15.7
3492
#23
29.62.1
34.2→32.1
Auto5.7
Teleop23.2
End0.7
Third
5816
#33
19.70.5
16.8→16.3
Auto5.0
Teleop14.8
End-0.1
red by 5.2
9668
#34
14.52.1
15.8→13.7
Auto2.5
Teleop11.0
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
77%Auto oddsEarned79%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
17%Coral oddsEarned6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
67%Barge oddsMissed57%Barge oddsMissed