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Red140
857063.3
966814.5
80151.3
Blue114
332434.1
239340.7
457622.5
96%Model gave it4%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1518550100200140114

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+9Auto
+18Teleop
+30Endgame
+26Fouls
AutonomousRed +9
9Leave9
4Coral scored#2
19Coral points10
28Total auto19
TeleoperatedRed +9
18Coral scored#16
66Coral points59
2Processor algae#1
5Net algae#6
12Processor points6
20Net points24
32Algae points30
98Total teleop89
Reef
5L4#7
7L3#5
6L2#4
4L1 · trough#2
29Game pieces#25
BargeRed +12
14Cage & park2
14Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +26
0Foul points4
140Total score114

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8570
#10
63.30.4
62.562.9
Auto13.8
Teleop39.4
End10.1
red by 22.6
2393
#22
40.72.5
36.839.3
Auto8.8
Teleop28.7
End3.2
Second
801
#26
51.30.4
49.850.2
Auto14.2
Teleop34.4
End2.7
red by 17.2
3324
#15
34.11.5
25.727.2
Auto7.1
Teleop27.4
End-0.4
Third
9668
#34
14.50.4
13.213.6
Auto2.5
Teleop11.0
End1.1
blue by 8.0
4576
#43
22.51.5
17.318.8
Auto5.5
Teleop15.2
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
92%Auto oddsEarned59%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
33%Coral oddsEarned7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
71%Barge oddsEarned25%Barge oddsMissed