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Qual 582025 Smoky Mountains Regional
Red155
584764.6
382436.2
707240.6
Blue117
1010117.0
426544.8
146632.1
95%Model gave it5%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1469050100200155117

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+32Teleop
+36Endgame
+38Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
9Leave3
7Coral scored#4
35Coral points20
44Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +11
16Coral scored#14
57Coral points50
4Processor algae#2
3Net algae#5
24Processor points12
12Net points20
36Algae points32
93Total teleop82
Reef
7L4#8
6L3#5
7L2#3
3L1 · trough#2
30Game pieces#25
BargeRed +4
16Cage & park12
16Total endgame12
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +38
2Foul points0
155Total score117

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5847
#6
64.61.7
57.8→59.5
Auto13.2
Teleop49.2
End2.2
red by 19.7
4265
#5
44.82.0
40.2→42.2
Auto11.3
Teleop27.8
End5.7
Second
7072
#9
40.61.7
36.7→38.4
Auto14.2
Teleop20.7
End5.7
red by 8.4
1466
#30
32.12.0
32.3→34.3
Auto5.8
Teleop24.9
End1.5
Third
3824
#21
36.21.7
32.7→34.4
Auto7.7
Teleop22.0
End6.5
red by 19.2
10101
#47
17.02.0
14.8→16.8
Auto2.6
Teleop10.9
End3.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
90%Auto oddsEarned64%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
22%Coral oddsEarned17%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
71%Barge oddsEarned40%Barge oddsMissed