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Red148
80151.3
742845.6
707240.6
Blue172
402073.2
857063.3
349229.6
22%Model gave it78%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions150188100200250300148172

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+5
Teleop+36
Endgame+24
Fouls+24
AutonomousBlue +5
3Leave9
7Coral scored#7
34Coral points33
37Total auto42
TeleoperatedBlue +31
20Coral scored#21
71Coral points74
1Processor algae#3
2Net algae#6
6Processor points18
8Net points24
14Algae points42
85Total teleop116
Reef
11L4#7
9L3#9
4L2#6
3L1 · trough#6
30Game pieces#37
BargeRed +12
26Cage & park14
26Total endgame14
Penalties & totalBlue +24
0Foul points0
148Total score172

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
801
#26
51.30.0
51.351.3
Auto14.2
Teleop34.4
End2.7
blue by 21.9
73.20.2
74.073.9
Auto22.1
Teleop43.7
End7.4
Second
7428
#24
45.60.0
45.645.6
Auto7.4
Teleop32.5
End5.7
blue by 17.7
8570
#10
63.30.2
64.264.0
Auto13.8
Teleop39.4
End10.1
Third
40.60.0
40.640.6
Auto14.2
Teleop20.7
End5.7
red by 11.0
3492
#23
29.60.2
30.530.3
Auto5.7
Teleop23.2
End0.7