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Red80
902931.0
643630.9
Blue55
958315.8
804214.7
74669.1
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5741020801008055

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+27Teleop
+27Endgame
+25Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
0Leave3
3Coral scored#1
16Coral points6
16Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +20
10Coral scored#4
36Coral points16
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#1
6Processor points6
4Net points4
10Algae points10
46Total teleop26
Reef
6L4#2
3L3#1
2L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
15Game pieces#7
Bargelevel
6Cage & park6
6Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +25
12Foul points14
80Total score55

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
31.01.8
18.320.0
Auto9.0
Teleop20.3
End1.7
red by 15.2
9583
#21
15.80.0
14.514.5
Auto3.4
Teleop10.9
End1.5
Second
30.91.8
22.924.7
Auto10.4
Teleop18.0
End2.4
red by 16.2
8042
#12
14.70.0
20.420.4
Auto3.5
Teleop9.2
End1.9
Third
9.51.8
10.712.5
Auto1.8
Teleop6.2
End1.5
red by 0.4
7466
#25
9.10.0
5.85.8
Auto3.1
Teleop3.9
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
50%Auto oddsEarned22%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
21%Barge oddsMissed20%Barge oddsMissed