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Red50
856115.2
94674.3
804214.7
Blue33
1047210.4
882812.0
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions39403545505033

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+31Teleop
+29Endgame
+17Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
0Leave0
2Coral scored#2
12Coral points9
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +28
6Coral scored#2
20Coral points6
1Processor algae#0
2Net algae#0
6Processor points0
8Net points0
14Algae points0
34Total teleop6
Reef
2L4#1
3L3#1
2L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
11Game pieces#4
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +17
0Foul points12
50Total score33

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8561
#10
15.21.1
9.810.9
Auto3.8
Teleop9.4
End1.9
red by 3.1
8828
#22
12.02.2
12.110.0
Auto3.9
Teleop5.7
End2.4
Second
8042
#12
14.71.1
20.421.5
Auto3.5
Teleop9.2
End1.9
red by 4.3
10.42.2
15.713.5
Auto3.2
Teleop6.1
End1.1
Third
9467
#20
4.31.1
7.18.2
Auto2.1
Teleop0.8
End1.4
blue by 5.7
9.92.2
10.07.9
Auto3.1
Teleop5.2
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
24%Auto oddsEarned36%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
28%Barge oddsMissed28%Barge oddsMissed