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Red53
958315.8
87803.6
1004213.8
Blue12
88626.8
804214.7
944710.5
33%Model gave it67%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions34500204060801001205312

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+15Teleop
+13Endgame
+41Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
0Leave6
2Coral scored#0
9Coral points0
9Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +12
2Coral scored#0
8Coral points0
0Processor algae#0
1Net algae#0
0Processor points0
4Net points0
4Algae points0
12Total teleop0
Reef
1L4#0
1L3#0
1L2#0
1L1 · trough#0
5Game pieces#0
BargeBlue +2
2Cage & park4
2Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +41
30Foul points2
53Total score12

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9583
#21
15.80.7
13.913.2
Auto3.4
Teleop10.9
End1.5
red by 1.1
8042
#12
14.73.6
21.317.7
Auto3.5
Teleop9.2
End1.9
Second
13.81.1
8.97.8
Auto2.5
Teleop9.1
End2.3
red by 3.3
9447
#32
10.53.6
12.48.8
Auto4.3
Teleop4.5
End1.7
Third
8780
#34
3.61.1
10.79.6
Auto2.1
Teleop-0.0
End1.6
blue by 3.1
8862
#23
6.83.6
11.27.6
Auto2.9
Teleop2.8
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
13%Auto oddsMissed44%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
17%Barge oddsMissed11%Barge oddsMissed