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Red84
643630.9
805812.0
902817.2
Blue56
944710.5
902432.3
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions555520304050607080908456

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+28Teleop
+30Endgame
+28Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
3Leave0
4Coral scored#2
20Coral points9
23Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +14
10Coral scored#9
37Coral points33
1Processor algae#0
2Net algae#1
6Processor points0
8Net points4
14Algae points4
51Total teleop37
Reef
6L4#5
3L3#3
3L2#2
2L1 · trough#1
17Game pieces#12
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +28
4Foul points6
84Total score56

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
30.92.6
26.729.4
Auto10.4
Teleop18.0
End2.4
blue by 1.5
32.30.2
32.532.3
Auto4.6
Teleop25.5
End2.2
Second
9028
#30
17.22.2
15.117.3
Auto1.3
Teleop15.3
End0.6
red by 6.7
9447
#32
10.50.2
10.710.5
Auto4.3
Teleop4.5
End1.7
Third
8058
#18
12.02.0
8.410.4
Auto2.8
Teleop7.6
End1.6
red by 2.5
9.50.2
9.79.5
Auto1.8
Teleop6.2
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
40%Auto oddsEarned21%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
18%Barge oddsMissed9%Barge oddsEarned