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Red84
950210.9
641730.7
744438.7
Blue51
876017.0
1020515.7
1023424.4
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions90590501001508451

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+6
+17Teleop
+27Endgame
+33Fouls
AutonomousBlue +6
9Leave0
1Coral scored#4
4Coral points19
13Total auto19
TeleoperatedRed +23
10Coral scored#7
37Coral points24
1Processor algae#0
2Net algae#1
6Processor points0
8Net points4
14Algae points4
51Total teleop28
Reef
4L4#3
2L3#3
3L2#4
2L1 · trough#1
14Game pieces#12
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +33
6Foul points0
84Total score51

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
38.70.2
38.438.3
Auto9.9
Teleop26.6
End2.2
red by 14.3
24.40.5
24.123.6
Auto7.0
Teleop16.3
End1.1
Second
30.70.1
30.330.2
Auto5.4
Teleop17.1
End8.2
red by 13.7
8760
#20
17.00.7
17.717.0
Auto5.1
Teleop10.1
End1.7
Third
9502
#46
10.90.2
11.110.9
Auto2.2
Teleop6.9
End1.7
blue by 4.8
15.70.7
16.415.7
Auto2.9
Teleop10.5
End2.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
48%Auto oddsMissed71%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
46%Barge oddsEarned15%Barge oddsMissed