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Red183
1059819.8
948371.1
815949.7
Blue116
645945.2
963538.4
95919.9
96%Model gave it4%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1518950100200250183116

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+47Teleop
+61Endgame
+67Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
6Leave3
9Coral scored#4
45Coral points20
51Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +19
24Coral scored#16
86Coral points59
2Processor algae#2
3Net algae#5
12Processor points12
12Net points20
24Algae points32
110Total teleop91
Reef
10L4#9
10L3#6
9L2#2
4L1 · trough#3
38Game pieces#27
BargeRed +14
16Cage & park2
16Total endgame2
Penalties & totalRed +67
6Foul points0
183Total score116

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
71.11.2
69.971.1
Auto17.7
Teleop47.2
End6.1
red by 25.8
45.20.7
44.545.2
Auto5.9
Teleop37.3
End2.0
Second
49.71.2
48.549.7
Auto15.4
Teleop33.4
End0.8
red by 11.3
38.40.7
37.638.4
Auto11.4
Teleop26.2
End0.7
Third
19.81.2
18.719.8
Auto4.9
Teleop10.2
End4.8
red by 9.9
9591
#28
9.90.7
9.29.9
Auto2.6
Teleop6.5
End0.8