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Red44
874710.5
645945.2
729610.9
Blue22
641726.3
90434.8
1067512.9
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6950204060801004422

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
+32Teleop
+22Endgame
+22Fouls
AutonomousRed +6
3Leave6
2Coral scored#0
9Coral points0
12Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +26
6Coral scored#1
20Coral points4
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#0
6Processor points0
4Net points0
10Algae points0
30Total teleop4
Reef
3L4#1
3L3#0
1L2#0
1L1 · trough#0
10Game pieces#1
BargeBlue +10
2Cage & park12
2Total endgame12
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +22
0Foul points0
44Total score22

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
45.21.9
31.029.2
Auto5.9
Teleop37.3
End2.0
red by 18.9
6417
#10
26.32.9
28.125.2
Auto6.3
Teleop14.0
End5.9
Second
7296
#34
10.91.9
12.610.8
Auto3.3
Teleop7.7
End-0.1
blue by 2.0
12.92.9
13.610.7
Auto5.2
Teleop6.6
End1.2
Third
8747
#17
10.51.9
17.115.3
Auto3.6
Teleop4.7
End2.1
red by 5.6
9043
#37
4.82.9
6.43.5
Auto-0.1
Teleop3.1
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
66%Auto oddsEarned30%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
24%Barge oddsMissed45%Barge oddsMissed