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Red124
880010.5
757630.6
Blue44
1018019.7
64159.8
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions545540608010012012444

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+6
+32Teleop
+32Endgame
+80Fouls
AutonomousBlue +6
0Leave0
1Coral scored#2
6Coral points12
6Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +38
13Coral scored#4
46Coral points16
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#1
6Processor points6
12Net points4
18Algae points10
64Total teleop26
Reef
6L4#2
5L3#2
2L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
18Game pieces#8
Bargelevel
6Cage & park6
6Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +80
48Foul points0
124Total score44

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7576
#25
30.61.0
27.528.6
Auto3.8
Teleop25.7
End1.2
red by 10.9
19.71.8
19.717.9
Auto3.9
Teleop9.5
End6.3
Second
8800
#37
10.51.7
12.314.0
Auto1.3
Teleop8.0
End1.3
red by 0.7
6415
#40
9.81.8
11.810.1
Auto1.2
Teleop7.1
End1.5
Third
7.61.7
7.08.7
Auto2.3
Teleop4.6
End0.7
blue by 0.2
7.81.8
14.412.6
Auto3.6
Teleop4.1
End0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
18%Auto oddsMissed22%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
10%Barge oddsEarned44%Barge oddsMissed