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Red40
1042513.0
497213.3
64159.8
Blue69
815810.1
757019.5
774816.4
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4346102030405060704069

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
Teleop+19
Endgame+17
Fouls+29
AutonomousBlue +4
9Leave3
0Coral scored#2
0Coral points10
9Total auto13
TeleoperatedBlue +15
6Coral scored#8
21Coral points30
0Processor algae#1
1Net algae#1
0Processor points6
4Net points4
4Algae points10
25Total teleop40
Reef
3L4#4
2L3#2
1L2#2
0L1 · trough#2
7Game pieces#12
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +29
0Foul points12
40Total score69

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4972
#27
13.30.5
13.714.1
Auto3.3
Teleop9.0
End1.0
blue by 6.2
7570
#23
19.51.7
16.818.5
Auto3.2
Teleop13.9
End2.4
Second
13.00.4
12.613.0
Auto3.8
Teleop8.2
End1.0
blue by 3.3
7748
#38
16.41.1
15.216.4
Auto4.3
Teleop11.5
End0.5
Third
6415
#40
9.80.5
9.49.8
Auto1.2
Teleop7.1
End1.5
blue by 0.2
8158
#32
10.11.7
8.410.1
Auto2.9
Teleop4.6
End2.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
29%Auto oddsMissed21%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
5%Barge oddsMissed28%Barge oddsMissed