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Red80
698525.1
1033717.4
808425.6
Blue76
774820.6
82632.5
694837.1
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions71490204060801008076

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
+2Teleop
+4Endgame
+4Fouls
AutonomousBlue +7
3Leave9
3Coral scored#3
13Coral points14
16Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +9
12Coral scored#11
44Coral points39
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#1
6Processor points6
8Net points4
14Algae points10
58Total teleop49
Reef
5L4#6
4L3#4
3L2#1
3L1 · trough#3
18Game pieces#16
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +4
0Foul points0
80Total score76

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8084
#19
25.61.1
17.218.2
Auto4.7
Teleop19.6
End1.3
blue by 11.5
6948
#11
37.12.0
26.028.0
Auto9.1
Teleop26.1
End1.9
Second
6985
#15
25.11.1
23.624.7
Auto6.8
Teleop15.6
End2.7
red by 4.5
7748
#32
20.62.0
10.812.9
Auto5.7
Teleop13.3
End1.6
Third
17.41.1
20.521.6
Auto3.8
Teleop12.1
End1.4
red by 14.8
8263
#40
2.52.0
8.810.9
Auto1.8
Teleop-0.0
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
57%Auto oddsMissed33%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
37%Barge oddsMissed27%Barge oddsMissed