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Red141
753634.6
774820.6
821445.4
Blue77
951931.7
640224.4
698525.1
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11092608010012014016018014177

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+50Teleop
+46Endgame
+64Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
6Leave3
6Coral scored#5
31Coral points23
37Total auto26
TeleoperatedRed +39
17Coral scored#9
60Coral points31
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
12Processor points6
12Net points8
24Algae points14
84Total teleop45
Reef
7L4#6
8L3#5
4L2#2
4L1 · trough#1
28Game pieces#17
BargeBlue +4
2Cage & park6
2Total endgame6
Penalties & totalRed +64
18Foul points0
141Total score77

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
45.40.8
44.845.6
Auto12.5
Teleop32.4
End0.5
red by 13.7
31.70.2
32.232.0
Auto8.2
Teleop19.4
End4.0
Second
34.60.8
34.034.8
Auto7.2
Teleop26.5
End0.9
red by 9.5
6985
#15
25.10.2
25.725.5
Auto6.8
Teleop15.6
End2.7
Third
7748
#32
20.60.8
20.020.8
Auto5.7
Teleop13.3
End1.6
blue by 3.8
6402
#14
24.40.2
24.924.8
Auto3.2
Teleop14.8
End6.4