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Red105
406338.5
750621.0
949249.5
Blue35
852811.5
1034035.1
708814.4
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9956015010535

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+1
+70Teleop
+68Endgame
+70Fouls
AutonomousBlue +1
3Leave0
3Coral scored#3
13Coral points17
16Total auto17
TeleoperatedRed +71
15Coral scored#1
55Coral points2
1Processor algae#0
3Net algae#0
6Processor points0
12Net points0
18Algae points0
73Total teleop2
Reef
7L4#2
4L3#1
4L2#1
3L1 · trough#0
22Game pieces#4
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +70
2Foul points0
105Total score35

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
49.51.1
37.138.2
Auto9.6
Teleop32.6
End7.4
red by 14.3
35.11.3
26.024.7
Auto9.2
Teleop20.3
End5.6
Second
38.51.1
35.636.6
Auto6.4
Teleop30.2
End2.0
red by 24.2
7088
#26
14.41.3
13.512.2
Auto3.4
Teleop7.2
End3.7
Third
7506
#19
21.01.1
11.212.3
Auto4.0
Teleop12.0
End5.0
red by 9.5
8528
#32
11.51.3
14.413.2
Auto2.9
Teleop5.6
End2.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
57%Auto oddsEarned10%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
37%Barge oddsEarned31%Barge oddsEarned