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Red115
950628.5
425119.7
246851.1
Blue140
949249.5
874943.4
697423.8
26%Model gave it74%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions991166080140160180115140

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+15
Endgame+25
Fouls+25
AutonomousBlue +7
3Leave3
3Coral scored#4
13Coral points20
16Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +8
16Coral scored#14
57Coral points51
3Processor algae#2
2Net algae#7
18Processor points12
8Net points28
26Algae points40
83Total teleop91
Reef
7L4#5
4L3#6
4L2#4
4L1 · trough#3
24Game pieces#27
BargeBlue +10
16Cage & park26
16Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +25
0Foul points0
115Total score140

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
51.11.8
41.343.1
Auto6.1
Teleop38.5
End6.4
red by 1.6
49.52.5
40.242.8
Auto9.6
Teleop32.6
End7.4
Second
9506
#22
28.51.8
23.725.5
Auto3.6
Teleop19.3
End5.5
blue by 14.9
43.42.5
38.340.8
Auto9.4
Teleop26.2
End7.8
Third
4251
#25
19.71.8
17.919.7
Auto4.9
Teleop11.0
End3.8
blue by 4.1
6974
#14
23.82.5
17.319.8
Auto3.1
Teleop17.1
End3.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
60%Auto oddsEarned65%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
10%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
74%Barge oddsEarned79%Barge oddsEarned