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Red42
356119.3
912110.6
801920.1
Blue12
859810.8
61558.8
572615.6
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5639020801004212

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+30Teleop
+30Endgame
+30Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
6Leave3
0Coral scored#0
0Coral points0
6Total auto3
TeleoperatedRed +27
6Coral scored#1
22Coral points5
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#0
6Processor points0
4Net points0
10Algae points0
32Total teleop5
Reef
3L4#1
1L3#0
1L2#0
1L1 · trough#0
8Game pieces#1
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +30
0Foul points0
42Total score12

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
20.10.9
20.819.9
Auto4.0
Teleop13.9
End2.1
red by 4.4
5726
#26
15.62.6
12.19.5
Auto2.2
Teleop12.0
End1.4
Second
3561
#18
19.30.9
15.114.2
Auto1.0
Teleop15.5
End2.7
red by 8.5
8598
#38
10.82.6
14.812.3
Auto2.6
Teleop8.1
End0.1
Third
9121
#19
10.60.9
10.910.0
Auto3.3
Teleop5.5
End1.8
red by 1.8
6155
#22
8.82.6
8.45.8
Auto2.5
Teleop4.8
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
32%Auto oddsMissed25%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
19%Barge oddsMissed28%Barge oddsMissed