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Red30
582921.1
43646.9
1279.8
Blue40
75216.1
635722.2
69018.7
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions474525303540505560653040

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
Teleop+6
Endgame+4
Fouls+10
Autonomouslevel
6Leave6
0Coral scored#0
0Coral points0
6Total auto6
TeleoperatedBlue +6
2Coral scored#4
8Coral points14
0Processor algae#0
1Net algae#1
0Processor points0
4Net points4
4Algae points4
12Total teleop18
Reef
1L4#2
1L3#1
0L2#1
0L1 · trough#0
3Game pieces#5
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +10
6Foul points12
30Total score40

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5829
#33
21.12.7
23.320.6
Auto3.9
Teleop14.3
End2.9
blue by 1.1
6357
#23
22.22.4
20.918.5
Auto3.4
Teleop16.9
End1.9
Second
127
#21
9.82.7
8.86.1
Auto3.3
Teleop4.7
End1.8
red by 1.1
6901
#15
8.72.4
10.07.7
Auto3.3
Teleop3.8
End1.6
Third
4364
#40
6.92.7
8.55.8
Auto3.1
Teleop2.6
End1.2
red by 0.8
7521
#39
6.12.4
9.57.2
Auto1.6
Teleop4.4
End0.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
20%Auto oddsMissed30%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
23%Barge oddsMissed32%Barge oddsMissed